As a born and raised Wisconsinite, my childhood memories are full of wintery scenes. Ice fishing, cross-country skiing for boy scouts or sledding at the local sled hill on a snow day made winter a time to explore the outdoors and create formative memories. As I grew older, the winters seemed more gray than white, and I began to think that the winters of my childhood  were nothing more than nostalgia playing tricks on my perception of the past.  This worrisome trend, however, is not a figment of my imagination, but the result of an unfortunate trend of warming winter temperatures and precipitation – bringing alarming implications on lake freezes and winter recreation across the state.

A Warming Wisconsin Winter

In a world increasingly faced by the impacts of climate change, it’s hard to believe that we could be seeing the impacts in our own backyard. Winter is the fastest warming season in Wisconsin, with average temperatures being observed to be 3 to 6 degrees warmer from 1950 to 2023. The UW-Madison Nelson Institute of Environmental Studies projects winter temperatures to be up to 6 degrees warmer by 2060 when compared to 1980. This is bolstered by the fact that the past two decades have been the warmest and wettest on record. These climate trends have contributed to delayed and shortened lake freezes, which attribute to a cascade of environmental and economic effects felt throughout Wisconsin communities.

A map illustrating DJF TMean: the average temperatures throughout Dec, Jan, and Feb
Image Source: Historical change in DJF TMean 1950-2023. Nelson Institute of Environmental Studies.

Winter and Our Lakes

Wisconsin has miles of Great Lakes coastline while boasting a plethora of inland lakes to provide opportunities for sustainable use and recreation. As our winters warm, our lakes follow suit – leading to shorter and more delayed freezes. The last two winters brought historically minimal ice coverage–a direct result of warmer winters. As of mid-December, Lake Michigan was recorded at temperatures 2.8 degrees warmer than average. This follows last winter when our surrounding Great Lakes were nearly ice free in mid-February, a time when their ice coverage should be at its peak. 

A bit closer to home, Lake Mendota froze on December 25th, 5 days later than the historical average. This was followed by a warm spell resulting in the ice being all but gone in two days. This year’s delay comes on the heels of  last year’s January 15th freeze date, nearly a month later than the historical average. Unfortunately, freezes once commonly seen in mid-December are now being often pushed into January. Coupled with earlier thaws, late freezes have sweeping effects on the lake and its surrounding communities. It’s important to remember that while everyday may not be warmer, an average increase in warm days allows lakes to retain heat from up to a year prior. Strong ice coverage occurs when we have consistently cold weather, rather than the interchanging cold and warm spells that we have more frequently experienced. 

The Effects

With warming winters and delayed freezes expected to be exacerbated even further, we can expect a multitude of effects, some of which are already being seen. At the environmental level, longer periods without ice can lead to increased shoreline erosion with increased  exposure to the harsh wind and waves that come with winter. Freezes over larger lakes such as the Great Lakes help keep winter temperatures low in coastal regions by reflecting energy and lowering the buffering capacity that large bodies of water have against temperature change via their high specific heat. 

Warmer winters are also affecting outdoor recreation in the state. Ice fishing seasons are increasingly delayed, affecting many local businesses who rely on income from the season. Shorter and less intense freezes limit the ability to safely participate in winter recreation on lakes. Last winter, due to the short freeze period on Lake Mendota, the City of Madison had to drastically alter its iconic Winter Carnival. The e games of pond hockey, skiers attempting daring jumps, and a bustling Memorial Union Terrace were absent. The iconic Lady Liberty traded her home on the ice for a plot of land in front of the Student Union. While last year was an exceptionally severe case for a warm winter, current trends dictate that this may become increasingly common as we see the effects of climate change in our local communities.

Image Source: Natalie Sopyla. Spectrum News https://spectrumnews1.com/wi/milwaukee/news/2024/02/10/weather-forces-changes-at-madison-winter-carnival

While it’s easy to get caught up in the depressing tone that comes with climate change, it’s important to remember that everyone has a part to play. Be it supporting green politicians, adopting sustainable lifestyles, or being socially active to advocate for change, there’s always something that you can do to ensure the future health of our environment. Instead of allowing the prospects of climate change to weigh you down, use it as motivation to lift you up to make a difference. 

Learn More: 

• Want to see how warmer temperatures have affected our local communities? Check out this video on how last year’s warm winter affected outdoor recreation
  

  Ice conditions cancel several winter events, on track to be one of the shortest times spent frozen

  MADISON (WKOW) -- Every winter, people in southern Wisconsin take advantage of some of the state’s finest assets: the lakes and their ice. But this year, two big events have

   

• Curious how a changing climate will affect where you live? Explore this interactive map that allows you to see the closest analog to your town’s projected climate in 2080
• Want to learn more about how lakes freeze in the winter? Take a look at this video on lake ice formation
  

  How does ice form on lakes?

  We all know that frozen lakes offer a lot of fun. But how does ice form on lakes and which ice is safest?

Aldo Leopold Nature Center	UW Arboretum	Friends of Horicon Marsh
ALNC is looking for volunteers for their pre-school programs! Family members and other caregivers are welcomed to sign up for an orientation by emailing here!	Have a plant lover in your life (it’s ok if it’s you)? Good thing the Friends of the Arboretum annual online plant sale recently opened! Shop today to support the Arboretum and enrich your garden!	Horicon Marsh opened registration for their Wilderness Academy program on January 21st and 23rd.  Click here to for more info on this month’s edition: Owls Up Close

For Families	For Educators	Upcoming Events
Overwhelmed by all the summer camp options that the area has to offer? Nature Net has you covered with our new resource listing summer camp registration timelines and information for all member organizations.	Nature Express grant applications for the spring semester are now open! Fill out your application here before February 14th for grants up to $300 to fund environmental education and nature exploration!	No matter the weather, there’s something for everyone on our Events Calendar. Check it out today to find you or your family’s next winter adventure!